Saturday, November 15, 2008

Steve the turkey

I knew a prop trader back in the days when I used to work for a brokerage house. Let's call him Steve. Steve was a prop trader and seemed to be doing very well for himself. Over the years, he seemed to be doing better and better. A couple of years ago, he decided to trade at his attic where he was the proud owner of a 4 bedroom luxury house in Beverly Hills with a Ferrari sitting in front of his driveway (one of his many luxury cars). I spoke with him every now and then and he would tell me about his trading strategies and how it's impossible for him to fail and that the risk of his portfolio crashing is practically none. Recently, I found out that he was bullish on Bear Stearns back in March and his portfolio was highly leveraged. Well, he blew up. Those who don't know what it means for a trader to blow up- it is when a trader loses substantially more than expected to the point where it's not recoverable. Steve never saw this market coming and he never expected this to happen to him. And this is not just Steve; more and more funds are closing down as well. More and more traders reached the point of exhaustion in their trading career, that they are now pursuing something less risky. One of my friend went back to school and the other opened up a restaurant.
When a turkey is being prepared for Thanksgiving, the turkey is fed multiple times everyday. From the turkey's point of view, he must think that life is good and humans are nice. He wakes up every morning and humans feed him. Little does he know that the more days he is getting fed and getting comfortable with humans, he is 1 day closer to getting killed and ready to be served on someone's dinner plate.
Many people including my friend Steve is no different than a turkey that's close to Thanksgiving. He made a lot of money while leveraging; little did he know that this eventually created a bubble of it's own.

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