Saturday, December 6, 2008

Should the US Govt bail out the auto industry?

Currently, the US auto industry is in the brink of failure. GM is the most immediate of the 3, needing $4 billion before the end of this month and $15 billion by the end of 1st Quarter 2009. Chrysler is next by admitting the need of $4 billion by the end of the 1st Quarter of 2009. Ford is not in need of immediate cash; however is afraid of speculation once GM and Chysler goes.
It would be scary to see GM go under. However, the auto industry had brought this to themselves. I do not think the US Government should help them out. The auto companies got themselves into this mess - primarily with poor management. I understand the economic ramifications (ie: unemployment, foreign trades, etc.) of the US auto companies going bankrupt, I think helping them now will only hurt us in the long run. If the governement bails them out now, then they will continue their poor performance. The US auto industry needs to completely re-structure themselves.

Take the "hedge" out of hedgefund

For the most part, it has been a terrible year for the financial markets. Hedgefunds came out a long time ago and it is suppose to target the high networth and institutional investors. The general strategy (for the most part) was suppose to sustain losses against the equity markets- hence "hedge". What happened? The equity market took a huge blow this year and it looks like there is more to go before we reached the bottom. In the alternative investment world, it looks similar. How did this happened? How can a fund that hedges against the market go down with the market? Apparently, many investment managers took the word "hedge" out of hedgefund and started to high correlate themselves with the equity markets and highly leverage themselves to inflate their portfolios which is one of the many reasons for our current economic crisis.
For 2009, I'm expecting a substantial shake-out in the hedgefund industry. I think most of the funds that lost the meaning of a "hedgefund" will close down, if they had not already done so. In the next several months, many funds will continue to close down. However, as a result, the funds that still stands at the end will prosper. In 2009, I'm expecting a new evolution in the hedgefund industry.